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This analysis evaluates the 2025 year-to-date (YTD) divergence between U.S. and global equity performance, with a focus on the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG), which has delivered a 33% YTD return as of June 10, 2025. Broad international markets have significantly outperformed major U.S. benchmarks i
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Published June 10, 2025, 14:34 UTC – Global equities have extended their broad 2025 rally through the first half of the year, outpacing U.S. benchmark returns by a factor of 15 or more for top-performing regional markets, according to data tracked by Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre, host of the *Stocks In Translation* podcast. As of June 10, the S&P 500 has posted a modest 2% YTD gain, while a basket of single-country foreign ETFs, priced in U.S. dollars for U.S.-based investo
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Key Highlights
The 2025 global equity rally has delivered uneven returns across regions, with four core takeaways for investors: First, European markets lead the 2025 YTD performance leaderboard, with Greece and Poland posting mid-40% gains, Austria and Spain at 40% each, Italy in the mid-30% range, and EWG (Germany) up 33%, while the UAE, Israel, and Japan have delivered low double-digit returns. Second, multi-year trailing returns confirm a sustained shift away from U.S. outperformance: Greece, Spain, and It
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Expert Insights
Blikre’s analysis frames two competing investment narratives emerging from the 2025 global performance divergence, with material implications for portfolio construction. First, the sustained multi-year outperformance of international markets has led some market participants to question whether the decade-long trend of U.S. equity exceptionalism is coming to an end. Structural tailwinds for international markets include post-austerity structural reforms in Greece that have restored investor confidence, supply chain reorientation that has benefited Central European economies including Poland and Austria, and corporate governance reforms in Japan that have unlocked shareholder value. For U.S.-based investors, unhedged ETFs like EWG offer additional upside exposure to further U.S. dollar weakness, a trend that many currency analysts expect to continue through the second half of 2025 amid easing U.S. interest rate policy. The counter-narrative, however, notes that the S&P 500’s recent consolidation near all-time highs suggests that near-term policy uncertainty, including recent tariff adjustments that have raised market volatility, is already priced into U.S. assets. If policy risks are resolved in the second half of the year, U.S. benchmarks could stage a catch-up rally that erases a portion of international markets’ YTD outperformance. For allocators, the key takeaway is that the broadening global bull market offers a chance to reduce portfolio concentration risk that built up during the 2010s and early 2020s era of U.S. large-cap outperformance. That said, investors should weigh upside potential against idiosyncratic regional risks: peripheral European markets remain exposed to shifts in European Central Bank monetary policy, Central European assets are sensitive to regional geopolitical volatility, and emerging market assets like the UAE ETF carry exposure to commodity price fluctuations. EWG’s breakout to all-time highs is a particularly notable positive signal, as Germany’s status as the eurozone’s largest economy means its performance reflects broad improvements in regional manufacturing activity and energy security, after years of headwinds following the 2022 Ukraine conflict. Blikre notes that while the trajectory of U.S. markets remains uncertain, the coordinated bullish price action across global equities confirms strong global risk appetite, a leading positive indicator for broad asset performance for the remainder of 2025. (Word count: 1187)
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